Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 21.549881 23.560739 25.802618 28.514134 31.742313 35.512544 40.326546
2025-01-05 18.567775 21.185945 24.335826 28.500647 34.023326 41.360146 52.374851
2025-01-12 16.375967 19.225019 22.836534 27.931918 35.282703 46.184438 65.311769
2025-01-19 15.428308 18.596368 22.815984 29.166262 39.183089 56.052131 92.397292
2025-01-26 14.239547 17.460661 21.894141 28.870719 40.617708 62.499196 119.389773
2025-02-02 13.391280 16.670013 21.316834 28.935629 42.596631 70.846938 162.924285
2025-02-09 12.740828 16.075462 20.928420 29.195714 44.956464 81.334977 239.111165
2025-02-16 12.144987 15.495212 20.480057 29.255603 46.927701 92.282430 370.435227
2025-02-23 11.550359 14.862609 19.875991 28.933576 48.009548 101.742328 592.635918
2025-03-02 11.102317 14.411371 19.509287 28.974783 49.907415 115.655825 1313.326909
2025-03-09 10.655000 13.927286 19.040670 28.749445 51.123632 128.714203 4999.702212
2025-03-16 10.252277 13.484357 18.599776 28.512539 52.258199 143.244195 NaN
2025-03-23 9.874692 13.065184 18.177245 28.283001 53.450869 160.880747 NaN
2025-03-30 9.542828 12.699332 17.818157 28.139612 54.885683 183.553397 NaN
2025-04-06 9.167071 12.243391 17.269964 27.533518 54.824076 197.549521 NaN
2025-04-13 9.086637 12.255434 17.541004 28.717048 60.724978 280.741545 NaN
2025-04-20 8.803281 11.921108 17.166208 28.421007 61.718662 324.721383 NaN
2025-04-27 8.588505 11.688450 16.959226 28.481019 64.033955 408.348491 NaN
2025-05-04 8.413030 11.511597 16.841317 28.732958 67.228815 558.686064 NaN
2025-05-11 8.225182 11.304630 16.652367 28.790749 69.749444 771.553150 NaN
2025-05-18 8.005626 11.034532 16.327298 28.477060 70.634798 989.664679 NaN
2025-05-25 7.839932 10.848811 16.151765 28.517101 73.162738 1580.248136 NaN
2025-06-01 7.655254 10.623108 15.885942 28.297676 74.452309 2508.871055 NaN